ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos made the plays when they mattered.
And following Denver's 23-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5, we're taking a closer look at some of those key snaps. As part of our new series, we're using the NFL's Next Gen Stats technology to count down the five moments that added the most win percentage points to Denver's odds of coming out victorious.
Early in the fourth quarter, the Broncos' chances of winning dropped to 15 percent. These were a handful of the plays that helped the Broncos surge back to earn their first divisional win of the year.
[Note: All percentages via NFL Next Gen Stats.]
5. D.J. Jones sets up a crucial stop
Win percentage points added: +8% (69% to 77%)
The Broncos had just taken a 20-17 lead when the Chargers regained possession with 5:07 to play. On the second snap of the series, though, D.J. Jones took down Justin Herbert for Denver's third sack of the half. Denver rushed five on the play, and Jones beat Cole Strange to get to the Chargers' quarterback. Herbert fumbled the football on the sack before regaining possession, and the play set up a third-and-18 with a little more than four minutes to play. Los Angeles would have one more ensuing drive, but this marked the Chargers' last possession that wasn't heavily restricted by the game clock. Early in the series, Jones made his impact felt.
4. Another Jones makes a play
Win percentage points added: +8% (79% to 87%)
Just two plays after D.J. Jones' sack, Brandon Jones made another crucial play. The Chargers elected to go for a fourth-and-6 from their own 31-yard line with 3:26 to play and just one timeout remaining. Herbert looked to the sticks along the right sideline for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but Jones had dropped directly into the throwing lane. The Broncos' safety, who recovered a fumble earlier in the game to set up Denver's first touchdown, hauled in an interception that was thrown in his direction. The Broncos would go on to add a field goal that pushed their lead to six points. And while Denver needed one more defensive stop, the interception represented the last significant leap in terms of win percentage points.
3. Courtland Sutton ties it up
Win percentage points added: +11% (39% to 50%)
The Broncos were on the doorstep of tying the game from the Los Angeles 5-yard line, but they needed to punch the ball into the end zone. They did so on second-and-goal, as the Chargers brought pressure at Bo Nix. The Broncos' quarterback stood in the pocket and alertly found an open Courtland Sutton in the back of the end zone. The touchdown catch was the first for Sutton this season and his first since the Broncos' AFC Championship Game appearance. The touchdown ended a 14-0 run by the Chargers, and Denver would end the game with a 13-0 burst of its own.
2. A stuffed sneak
Win percentage points added: +12% (18% to 30%)
The Broncos' odds of winning appeared somewhat slim, particularly after Denver came up empty after a Marvin Mims Jr. punt return pushed the ball deep into LA territory. Following the missed field goal on that possession, Denver's chances of winning dropped to 15 percent, according to NGS. And a few plays later on the Chargers' ensuing drive, they remained at 18%. That changed when the Chargers elected to go for a fourth-and-1 from their own 41-yard line. Chargers head coach Jim Harbaurgh lamented the decision after the game, as Denver stuffed Herbert's quarterback sneak attempt and took over with great field position. Five plays later, Nix hit Sutton for the aforementioned game-tying touchdown. One other note: cornerback Jahdae Barron's third-down tackle of Herbert was vital in setting up the defining fourth down.
1. Allen makes the difference
Win percentage points added: +21% (50% to 71%)
With the game tied, defensive lineman Zach Allen grabbed control of the contest. On the Chargers' ensuing possession after the game-tying touchdown, Allen beat center Jake Slaughter and got Herbert in his grasp. The LA quarterback lost control of the football on his way to the ground, and outside linebacker Que Robinson recovered. The Broncos would march to the 1-yard line and take nearly three minutes off the clock before kicking a go-ahead field goal. The strip-sack was just the second of Allen's career and the first that was recovered by his team. In a fourth quarter full of big plays, Next Gen Stats cited Allen's strip-sack as the one that rose above the rest.
