ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Every play counts. Some just count more than others.
Over the course of a football game, there are a slew of moments that hold more weight and define the outcome of a football game.
In the wake of the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Los Angeles Rams, we're debuting a new series that highlights those plays. With the help of the NFL's Next Gen Stats, we'll count down the five moments that added the most win percentage points to the Broncos' chances of earning a victory.
During Sunday's game, the Broncos' odds of earning a win dropped all the way to 8 percent following a three-and-out to open the second half. These were the five plays that helped the Broncos claw their way back.
[Note: All percentages via NFL Next Gen Stats.]
5. Bo Nix plunges in for last-minute go-ahead touchdown
Win percentage points added: +13% (78% to 91%)
The Broncos already had a significant chance at winning the game when Nix dove over the top of a pile at the goal line to score the clinching touchdown. The final score of the game, which came with 47 seconds left in regulation, forced the Rams to play for a touchdown on their last-gasp drive. If Nix was stopped short, the Broncos would have been forced to choose between a field goal to even the score or a gutsy fourth-down attempt to take the lead. Given how the Rams challenged the Broncos on the final drive, taking a four-point lead was critical.
4. Broncos gain fresh set of downs via PI call
Win percentage points added: +16% (58% to 74%)
The Broncos' chances of winning shot up to 65 percent at the two-minute warning following Troy Franklin's catch that brought Denver to the Los Angeles 15-yard line, but those odds fell slightly over the ensuing plays. When Nix escaped the pocket on third-and-6 with 1:15 to play, the Broncos' odds of winning had dropped to 58 percent. Without a conversion, Denver would likely have tied the game and kicked the ball back to Los Angeles with the Rams holding two timeouts and needing just a field goal. Instead, Rams cornerback Josh Wallace interfered with wide receiver Pat Bryant, and Denver gained a fresh set of downs due to the pass interference penalty. The call allowed the Broncos to work more time off the clock and drain another timeout from the Rams before the eventual game-winning score.
3. Troy Franklin pushes the Broncos into the red zone
Win percentage points added: +16% (49% to 65%)
Sensing a theme? In some games, the array of plays that are declared the most consequential are spread across the game. But in a matchup like the one on "Sunday Night Football," the Broncos didn't take control until the final offensive possession. Franklin's lone catch of the night pushed the Broncos to the Los Angeles 15-yard line and moved the Broncos' chances of winning above 50 percent for good. Franklin's catch was Denver's second consecutive snap that gained at least 20 yards, as the Broncos pushed the ball 60 yards down the field in just two plays.
2. Pat Bryant's catch-and-run changes Denver's fortune
Win percentage points added: +22% (27% to 49%)
Franklin's catch pushed the Broncos into scoring range, but this play kick-started the go-ahead drive. Trailing by three points late in the fourth quarter, the Broncos' game-winning drive faced an inauspicious start. Nix's first-down pass fell incomplete, and a second-down scramble was called back due to offensive holding. As Nix lined up in shotgun on second-and-20 from his own 25-yard line with 3:26 to play, Denver's chances of winning had fallen back to 27 percent. Nix, though, delivered to Bryant in a big spot — and Bryant took off for a 39-yard gain. Bryant's catch-and-run was Denver's offense's longest play from scrimmage of the night, and it wiped out a situation in which the Broncos were behind the chains. Bryant had a pair of other catches that went for a touchdown and two-point conversion, respectively, but his final grab held the most weight in earning the Broncos a win.
1. Talanoa Hufanga goes the distance
Win percentage points added: +56% (16% to 72%)
What else could it be? The Broncos' chances of winning weren't as slim as they were when facing a 16-0 deficit early in the third quarter, but they were far from great. The Rams held a three-point lead with just over five minutes to play in the fourth quarter, and they were on the edge of field-goal range following a takeaway. If Matthew Stafford's third-and-6 pass fell incomplete, the Rams would have had a chance to extend their lead to six points with a long field goal. And with a conversion on the play, the Rams' drive would have continued and provided an opportunity to take a two-possession lead. Safety Talanoa Hufanga made sure neither happened. As Stafford — who was pressured by outside linebacker Que Robinson — fired a short pass to his left, Hufanga stepped in front and raced the other way with the interception. The veteran safety broke Stafford's tackle attempt and weaved his way toward the end zone for the game-changing pick six. Hufanga later sealed the win with another interception, improving the Broncos' chances of winning from 91 percent to a definitive 100 percent.
