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Broncos vs. Raiders game predictions: Who the experts think will win in Week 11


After falling to the Titans in Week 10, the Broncos (3-6) will look to right the ship against their AFC West rival. Las Vegas got the best of Denver in their first matchup in Week 4, but the Raiders (2-7) have dropped three straight games. Arguably the league's best cornerback and wide receiver will go head to head as Pat Surtain II matches up against Davante Adams, and it should be a thrilling battle.

To get you ready for the big game, we rounded up score and spread predictions from NFL analysts. 

BetMGM's model projects that the Broncos will win, with 62.3 percent confidence. The model factors in offensive and defensive matchups, recent games, key player performances from the season and injuries. Here is BetMGM's game overview with betting trends and more.

The Raiders rushed for 164 yards on only 27 carries in a win over the Houston Texans in Week 7. They were averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry and had one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL (DVOA) through seven weeks. Since then: 188 yards on 55 carries. The rushing attack has suffered from a negative game script — they faced a double-digit second-quarter deficit in each of their last three losses — but it's still been miserable. And I think that's unlikely to change against a Broncos' unit whose run-stopping commitment against the Titans paid off in Week 10. That's the biggest reason I'm taking the Broncos to earn their first home win over the Raiders since 2019. – Andrew Doughty

Projected score: Broncos 20, Raiders 17

This rivals Rams-Saints as the biggest Bad Vibes Bowl of the week. The Raiders' defense is so bad (dead last in efficiency) that it revived Matt Ryan and the Colts last week. Las Vegas also gave up 23 points to Denver last time around, a season high for Russell Wilson and Co. The Broncos have averaged 13.5 points in their other eight games. Denver's crumbling offensive line is a huge issue, as is Vegas' inability to create separation at receiver. It feels so much later than Week 11 for both of these teams.

Projected score: Raiders 20, Broncos 19 

Beyond two first-year head coaches on fast-warming seats, the Raiders are the only team to have carved out more than 307 yards' worth of offense against the Broncos this season and the only team to have scored more than 19 points this season against the league's No. 1 scoring defense — they did both in the Raiders' 32-23 win in Week 4. Oh, and the Raiders rushed for a season-most 212 yards against the Broncos' defense as well. – Jeff Legwold

Moody's projected score: Broncos 24, Raiders 21 

Walder's projected score: Raiders 26, Broncos 16

The Broncos can't score and the Raiders can't stop anybody. Something has to give. I think the Raiders will get their stops and Derek Carr and the offense will find a way to win it.

Projected score: Raiders 28, Broncos 21

Entering Sunday, Denver has lost five of its last six games. Russell Wilson is throwing into coverage a lot, and his top receiving option, Jerry Jeudy, is questionable this week with an ankle injury. But the Broncos' defense ... should handle the Raiders.

Pick: Broncos -2.5

It's the Josh McDaniels bowl in a battle of the most disappointing teams of 2022. Denver has the top scoring defense in the NFL, and yet the offense has been miserable. The Raiders have won the last five in this rivalry, but the Broncos flip the script.

Projected score: Broncos 20, Raiders 18

The fact that Surtain doesn't have any interceptions might be the only thing keeping him out of the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. He's been one of the best corners in the league all season, and according to Pro Football Focus, he has given up just four catches for 18 yards in the past four games. Adams has been on fire with 19 catches for 172 yards and three touchdowns the past two weeks. He also lit up Denver with nine catches for 101 yards in Week 4, making this matchup even juicier.

Projected score: Broncos 13, Raiders 10

The Denver Broncos haven't made any significant strides since their 32-23 loss to the Raiders in Week 4. While the Broncos defense remains stout, allowing the fewest points and the second-fewest yards per game, their offense has recorded the fewest points through 10 weeks. Denver has scored more than 16 points in two out of nine contests.

Projected score: Broncos 24, Raiders 20

Before the season, if you would've told me that the Broncos defense would rank second in EPA per drive through 10 weeks, I would've assumed they were a Super Bowl contender. Not the case! Denver's offense is 31st in DVOA, ahead of only the Colts.

Pick: Raiders +2.5

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