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Game Preview: Broncos set to host Jaguars in meeting of AFC contenders

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — A pair of the AFC's best are set to clash at Empower Field at Mile High.

The Broncos (12-2) will host the Jaguars (10-4) on Sunday in a game that could prove critical as a pair of division leaders jockey for seeding.

Denver could secure the AFC West title with a win and a Chargers loss, and locking up the No. 1 seed is also possible, pending other results around the league.

The game offers more than a potential clinch scenario, though. It also offers a chance for Denver to compete against another AFC contender that the Broncos could potentially see in January.

"They're doing a lot of things really well," Head Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. "… You see a real good team."

As the Broncos put their 11-game win streak on the line against a red-hot Jacksonville offense and an opportunistic defense, they'll aim to rely on their home crowd in a battle of two AFC contenders.

"The last two home games, it's kind of felt like [a] playoff atmosphere," cornerback Riley Moss said. "That's fun for us, and I know that's fun for the fans. They have no idea how much they affect the game. When they come out and create that atmosphere, it helps us tremendously."

These are the questions that will help determine if the Broncos can earn a critical Week 16 win:

WILL DENVER GET PRESSURE ON TREVOR LAWRENCE?

Trevor Lawrence has been on a tear in recent weeks, as the Jacksonville quarterback ranks in the top three in the NFL in wins, pass yards per attempt, pass touchdowns, team points per game and passer rating since Week 10.

The former first-overall pick has tied a career best with three consecutive games with a passer rating of at least 100.0, and he's also thrown at least two touchdowns in a career-high four consecutive games.

In recent weeks, Lawrence has also avoided mistakes. The Jacksonville quarterbacks hasn't thrown an interception in the last three weeks and hasn't been sacked in the past two games. That's a stark change from earlier in the season, when Lawrence threw at least one interception in eight of his first 11 games this year. Before the last two games, Lawrence was also sacked at least three times in six of his previous eight games.

If the Broncos can get back to pressuring Lawrence, it could help them force a couple of mistakes and earn an advantage in Sunday's matchup. Denver is currently averaging the most sacks per game of any team since the 1989 Vikings, and the Broncos are one of two teams this year to have at least three players with 40 pressures apiece. Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto's 10.9 percent quick pressure rate is the fourth highest in a season since 2021, and he also leads the NFL with 37 quick pressures.

Denver's pass rush didn't find immediate success in a Week 15 win against the Packers, but the group wore down Green Bay over the course of the game to record three sacks and help alter throws that resulted in a pair of interceptions. If the Broncos can win at the line of scrimmage and prevent Lawrence from continuing his momentum, it could give Denver an edge.

CAN THE BRONCOS GAIN AN EDGE IN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?

The turnover battle is always important.

But this week, it might be a little bit more of a focus.

"It's such an important stat," Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi said. "It's hard to say you emphasize it more from one week to the next because it's always so important, but knowing that this team does such a good job taking the ball away and they thrive off that, it's certainly something that we're highlighting this week."

The Jaguars have fueled their success this season, in part, via a slew of takeaways. Jacksonville's 26 takeaways and 18 interceptions rank second in the NFL, and those numbers come after the Jags recorded nine takeaways — the fewest in the NFL — in all of 2024.

Jacksonville has six games with at least three takeaways — including each of their last two games — and the team has scored 97 points off takeaways this season. The Jags' plus-10 differential is tied for fourth in the NFL, and they have just two giveaways over their last two games.

Denver's season-long turnover margin is tied for 17th, but the Broncos have been better in recent weeks. They forced a pair of turnovers in Week 15 against the Packers, and they've recorded five takeaways over the last five games after posting just seven in the first nine games of the year.

On offense, Bo Nix has thrown just one interception since the bye week, and Denver has just two turnovers in that span. As a result, the Broncos have not lost the turnover battle since Week 10 against the Raiders.

If the Broncos can eliminate Jacksonville's turnover edge, it would prevent the Jaguars' high-powered offense from gaining extra possessions — and that could give the Broncos the advantage they need to earn a win.

CAN THE BRONCOS WIN IN THE RED ZONE AGAIN?

It's not a stretch to say the Broncos won their game against the Packers inside the 20-yard line.

The Packers finished the game 1-of-4 inside the red zone, while the Broncos were a perfect 4-of-4. Especially early, as the Packers scored on all four of their first-half possessions but notched just 16 points, that was a critical factor. Instead of running away with the game, the Packers were held in check close to the goal line — and the Broncos' defense locked Green Bay down in the second half. In last week's win, Denver held the Packers scoreless on five of their final six possessions.

Against a potent offense like Jacksonville's, finding success in the red zone will again be important. Since Week 9 — which closely aligns with wide receiver Jakobi Meyers' Week 10 debut — the Jaguars have averaged 32.9 points per game and scored at least 25 points in every game.

Jacksonville currently boasts the league's 13th-ranked red-zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 60 percent of its trips — though that number has jumped to over 69 percent over the last three games. And in Denver, the Jaguars — who rank 19th in red-zone scoring on the road — will face the league's top-ranked red-zone defense. Denver is on pace to be the first team to lead the league in third-down and red-zone defense since the 2008 Steelers, who went on to win the Super Bowl.

"My mindset is not allowing them to score, obviously," cornerback Pat Surtain II said. "When they get down there, we make it as tough as possible for them. I think what we do a great job [of] down there is everybody's communicating collectively. Everybody knows their job and assignments. We just play hard-nose football down there. We really protect that area of the field. We really talk about not allowing the opponents to get in that end zone. … We hold ourselves up to that standard."

Offensively, the Broncos have started to find their own stride in the red zone. Over the last three weeks, Denver is 9-of-12 in the red zone, which is tied for the second-highest rate in the league during that stretch.

Denver may face a challenge in the red zone against Jacksonville's top-ranked rushing defense, but Nix will look to post another strong performance after he posted four touchdowns and a 134.7 passer rating against one of the league's top defenses in Week 15.

"When we go to keys to victory, it always gets to the third down and red zone," Payton said.

If Denver can again find success inside the 20-yard line, it may be the difference in the game.

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