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Game Preview: Broncos look to clinch No. 1 seed, postseason home-field advantage in division battle vs. Chargers

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The postseason essentially begins this Sunday.

The Broncos (13-3) are set to host the Chargers (11-5) in their regular-season finale, and the stakes could not be higher.

"Our focus is, this is a playoff game," Head Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday.

With a win, the Broncos would match their highest win total in franchise history and secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With the top spot in the conference, the Broncos would earn a first-round bye and clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

The importance of a win cannot be understated, and it's the next step for the Broncos as they chase championship goals.

"We didn't come this far just to come this far," cornerback Pat Surtain II said Wednesday.

And while Chargers starting quarterback Justin Herbert — and potentially several other starters — will not play in Sunday's Week 18 matchup, Denver's focus has not waned.

"I think these guys are smart enough to understand the importance of the game," Payton said Friday.

These are the questions that will help determine if Denver can earn a clinching win:

WILL DENVER WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?

The Broncos' focus on winning the turnover battle is nothing new, but there's a heightened importance as the postseason nears.

"The one area that has to improve is the turnover margin, and that can happen," Payton said Monday.

Payton pointed to a study of Super Bowl winners' playoff turnover differential, as he noted just one Super Bowl winner in the last 25 years has posted a negative differential.

Ten of the last 15 Super Bowl winners were first or second in turnover differential among the playoff teams, and eight of those 15 teams were at least plus-4 during their Super Bowl runs. As recently as a year ago, the Eagles were plus-12 in their march to a title.

Denver enters Sunday's game tied for 25th in the NFL in turnover margin and will look to rebound after losing the turnover battle in each of the last two weeks. The two games ended a streak from Weeks 11-15 in which Denver did not lose the takeaway battle.

"I think playing defense in general, you have to be in good position," Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said. "You have to win the critical downs. That starts with stopping the run, winning third downs and red zone. I think we're doing that. The turnovers haven't come. We have to coach that better obviously and strain more to create more turnovers. I want more, we need more turnovers, but we have to focus on playing the right way. That's the first way. Obviously if you're in a good position, and you're playing fast and attacking [quarterbacks'] elbows [as] pass rushers, you can create more turnovers. I think we will create more turnovers."

Joseph did also stress the importance of not chasing turnovers and noted that the Broncos — who are second in third-down and red-zone defense — have created stops in other fashions.

In the regular-season finale, though, taking the ball away could be critical.

CAN DENVER SLOW TREY LANCE?

The Broncos won't see Herbert on Sunday, but they'll face another talented player in Trey Lance. The North Dakota State product has attempted just 13 passes this season in his first season in LA, but he's still got the talent that led to him being drafted with the third-overall pick in 2021.

"There's plenty of tape," Joseph said. "He was a first-round pick for a reason. He's athletic, he can run. That's [Head] Coach [Sean Payton]'s theme this week about rushing a guy the right way, because he can hurt us with his legs. I thought the kid we played last week [Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun] was athletic also, and he got away a couple of times. Not bad, but not good enough to our standard. I think Trey is an exceptional athlete. He can make every throw on the field. He's a first-round pick, so playing our best ball is going to be important for us."

Lance's last start came in Week 18 for Dallas last season, and he completed 20-of-34 passes for 244 yards in a 23-19 loss. In his career, Lance is 1-3 in starts in which he played at least 25 percent of the team's snaps.

"Obviously, Herbert is a great player, but we are preparing the same as if he were out there," cornerback Pat Surtain II said Wednesday. "Trey is very capable. He was in my draft class, as a matter of fact. He is a first-round pick with all of the intangibles and tools to succeed. We're definitely not taking this game lightly. It's a division opponent, and he is a hell of a player. They have a great organization and coaches, so we have to be sharp."

HOW WILL THE CROWD PLAY A ROLE?

There's a number of other questions we could slot in here: Will Bo Nix guide the Broncos to explosive plays? Can Denver control the clock again? The list goes on.

But we'll highlight the importance of the home crowd, given that the Broncos are fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

In a matchup against a reserve quarterback, the Empower Field at Mile High crowd's ability to impact the Chargers' offense — beginning with when the group is in the huddle — will be crucial.

"Let's get this [stadium], when they're getting in the huddle, deafening," Payton said Wednesday.

The Broncos are 13-2 in their last 15 home games, and Payton and several players have pointed to Denver's win over Green Bay as a turning point in regards to the noise level at Empower Field at Mile High.

"Our crowd has been one of the best in the world right now," tackle Mike McGlinchey said Wednesday.

Denver's home crowd will have an active role in making life difficult for the Chargers' offense, and it could have a tangible effect on both Sunday's matchup and the postseason games to come.

"Listen, the atmosphere will be fantastic," Payton said Friday. "I'm excited about it — and it matters."

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