ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Broncos Country has had this one circled.
The Broncos' rivalry with the Kansas City Chiefs will be renewed on Sunday, and the stakes are different than they've been in recent memory.
Denver (8-2) hasn't led the AFC West this late in the season since 2015, and the Broncos will look to push their division chances to nearly 70 percent with a win over Kansas City in Week 11.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are chasing the Broncos as they look to keep their nine-year streak alive as division champions. If Kansas City falls on Sunday, its division title chances would drop to single digits, according to The Athletic's playoff simulator.
So, while the Broncos have aspirations of playing in more high-stakes games as the season progresses, they also understand the magnitude of Sunday's divisional matchup.
"We've had a good week," Head Coach Sean Payton said Friday. "These guys are focused. They certainly understand the significance of the game. It's like I said to them before, 'You're going to play in bigger games,' but this is the next one."
These are the questions that will determine if the Broncos can earn a critical win against the Chiefs on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High:
CAN THE BRONCOS MAKE MORE PLAYS IN A CLOSE GAME?
This one could come down to the wire.
Excluding the Broncos' 38-0 win over the Chiefs' reserves to clinch a playoff berth in the 2024 season finale, the Broncos and Chiefs have played a slew of close games in recent years.
The other meeting in 2024 was decided by two points via a heartbreaking last-second field-goal block. Denver's streak-snapping home win in 2023 ended up as a 15-point margin, but the Broncos led by just five points entering the fourth quarter. In a "Thursday Night Football" matchup earlier that season, Denver cut the lead to one-possession in the fourth quarter before the Chiefs iced the game with a field goal. Three consecutive games before that, dating back to the 2021 season, were all decided by one score.
The Broncos' resume through 10 games shows this team should be comfortable if that situation plays out again. After posting a 1-6 record in one-score games in 2024, the Broncos have already recorded a 6-2 mark in one-possession games this season. Kansas City, meanwhile, is 0-4 in such games after they went 11-0 in 2024 and won an NFL record 17-consecutive one-score games leading into 2025.
"A year ago, we didn't fare so well in close games," Payton said. "We won 10 games, but in one-score games, we weren't nearly as good, and our opponent this weekend was unbelievable in one-score games. I'm glad that script has flipped, because we've played in some close games. … I think we have the right guys, we have the right, I would say, grit, mental toughness — all those things I think that it takes to win, [and] be successful."
One of the reasons for the Broncos' late success? Quarterback Bo Nix has been at his best in big moments. Nix ranks either first or tied for first in total touchdowns, total first downs, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in fourth quarters this season — and he's second in total yards. In matchups against the Eagles, Jets, Giants and Texans, Nix has elevated his game late and made plays when it mattered.
"I think we've seen from Bo, there have been games where we've struggled offensively early and then all of a sudden he finds a way to turn it on and do what we have to do in the fourth quarter, or the second half, or whenever we need it," Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi said. "Whatever we need to win a game, he finds a way. He's resilient that way. I think there's a lot of belief that we'll find a way regardless of how it starts."
Lombardi also emphasized that doesn't mean the Broncos want to start slow, and Payton noted the importance of avoiding penalties and the entire operation finding ways to improve.
The defense, of course, has performed well, too. Denver's plus-60 point differential and plus-10 sack differential are first and tied for first, respectively, and the unit came up with big stops in those comebacks, as well.
Whether on offense, defense or special teams, Denver may need to make a play in crunch time to help earn a win. If the Broncos can continue their previous fourth-quarter magic, it could spur them to a victory over the Chiefs.
CAN DENVER'S PASS RUSH GET HOME?
The Broncos' pass rush is on pace for a historic season — and it will need to be at its best against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City.
The Chiefs' offense has surged back in recent weeks, as Mahomes led the NFL in passing touchdowns and passing yards during a five-week span from Weeks 4-8. If Denver can pressure Mahomes, though, it could result in a different outcome.
In games in which Mahomes has been pressured at a rate lower than 25 percent this season, he is 4-1 and has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 114.8 quarterback rating. In games when he's been pressured at a higher rate, he's 1-3 with a 55.4 completion percentage, three touchdowns, two interceptions and a 77.0 quarterback rating.
Denver's 42.9 pressure rate this season, meanwhile, leads the NFL and is the highest of the Next Gen Stats era, which dates back to 2018.
While the Broncos have been able to bring pressure with just four rushers, they also have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league. And through nine games, Mahomes' 5.64 completion percentage and 83.8 passer rating vs. the blitz rank as career lows for Mahomes.
As Broncos fans have learned during his career, though, Mahomes has a knack for improvisation. He leads the NFL with 513 total yards on scrambles, posting 229 pass yards and 284 rush yards while on the move.
While getting after Mahomes, the Broncos will need to also keep him contained in the pocket.
"He's been the best for a long time," Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said. "He's a winner. The plays he can make off schedule, that makes it tough. They're in the huddle and they have a play called, and you can defend that play perfectly and he can obviously buy time in the second act. That's where he makes his explosive plays."
The Broncos' defense has held Mahomes in check in the three meetings since Joseph's return to Denver, as the Chiefs have averaged fewer than 15 points per game in those meetings. And while Joseph downplayed the importance of that stat, another similar performance would certainly benefit the Broncos' effort.
Whether in the red zone — where Denver's top-ranked unit will face the Chiefs' third-ranked group — or elsewhere, the Broncos could take a huge step toward a win if the team's pass rush can make Mahomes uncomfortable.
HOW WILL THE BRONCOS RESPOND TO ADVERSITY?
The next-man-up mentality will be on display Sunday.
Denver ruled out five players for the Week 11 matchup, including starters Pat Surtain II, Alex Singleton and J.K. Dobbins.
"It's our league," Payton said. "You've heard me say that, and we've played teams earlier in the season that have been in this position. … It has to be the next man up."
Surtain will miss his third consecutive game, and Denver will have to manage to slow the talented Rashee Rice without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Rice has caught 13 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown over the past two games, and Payton said Rice's return "has really helped" the Chiefs' offense. The Broncos have held their last two opponents in check without Surtain, but Sunday will represent a different sort of challenge.
At linebacker, the Broncos should likely be able to rely on two experienced players in Dre Greenlaw and Justin Strnad. Greenlaw played a season-high 62 percent of the snaps in a Week 10 win over the Raiders as he recorded five tackles, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble and a pass defensed.
"It's been remarkable," Payton said of Greenlaw's impact. "That goal-line stand a week or two ago [was impressive]. He's a physical, physical tackler, and he has that 'it.' I'm glad he's on our team."
Payton said Strnad, who has started 14 games over the last two seasons, is also "extremely" valuable to the team.
Denver will also likely count on running back RJ Harvey, as Payton said the rookie will receive more opportunities. The young player, who has four total touchdowns in his last three games, said he's set for the increased workload.
"I'm ready," Harvey said Friday. "Whatever Coach needs me to do, I'm ready to go on the field. I had a great week of practice. [I'm] just ready to go."
As the Broncos look to earn a win over the Chiefs, several players stepping up in the face of adversity will be key.
