Skip to main content

Denver Broncos | News

Broncos vs. Chiefs game predictions: Who the experts think will win in Week 17


In the penultimate game of the season, the Broncos (4-11) will travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs (12-3). The first matchup between these teams in Week 14 nearly saw Denver come back from a 27-point deficit due to clutch turnovers and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's three-touchdown performance.

In this rematch, Interim Head Coach Jerry Rosburg has a tough task ahead of him as he looks to right the ship. Kansas City has one of the most electric offenses in the league, and it is fighting for the top seed in the AFC.

To get you ready for the big game, we rounded up score and spread predictions from NFL analysts.

BetMGM's model projects that the Chiefs will win, with 87.0 percent confidence. The model factors in offensive and defensive matchups, recent games, key player performances from the season and injuries. Here is BetMGM's game overview with betting trends and more.

The spread for the Broncos-Chiefs game — currently 13.5 in BetMGM's NFL odds — is the second biggest in the last 20 years for the first game of an interim coach's tenure. Only the Rams in 2016 — +15 at the Seattle Seahawks — under interim coach John Fassel were a bigger underdog. Underdogs of at least 10 points are on an eight-game moneyline losing streak entering Week 17 after going 4-5 from Week 6 through Week 10. The Broncos won't end that skid on Sunday and hand the Chiefs their first outright loss since 2020 when favored by at least 10 points. And I don't think they'll become the 19th team since 2003 to cover in the first game after the dismissal of a head coach. – Andrew Doughty

Projected score: Chiefs 31, Broncos 13

On Tuesday's episode of the Around the NFL Podcast, my old friend Andrew Hawkins noted that you can tell a lot about how a team felt about its previous coach based on how the players perform the week after he's been let go. ... (Also, most interim head coaches don't have to face Patrick Mahomes in their first week on the job.)

Projected score: Chiefs 41, Broncos 20

Even though the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 14 consecutive times, the games haven't been as one-sided as the streak might indicate. The Chiefs have won three of their last four games against the Broncos by six points or less, including a 34-28 win in Denver in Week 14. What's more, the Chiefs have mostly struggled to finish off ... opponents like the Broncos. This is the Chiefs' fifth game against an opponent that currently has four wins or less. Three of the first lost one of those games, against the Colts in Week 3. – Adam Teicher

Moody's projected score: Chiefs 34, Broncos 17

Walder's projected score: Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

The Broncos are playing consecutive road games, and they are playing for nothing. Kansas City still has a chance at the top seed in the conference. The Broncos are also a mess right now after firing coach Nathaniel Hackett. I don't think they get the fired-coach boost here.

Projected score: Chiefs 33, Broncos 10

For his first game as interim coach, [Jerry] Rosburg gets Kansas City, currently playing some of the best football in the league. When these two teams met in Denver in Week 14, a 34-28 Kansas City win, the Broncos stayed within a touchdown and covered the 9.5-point spread. Kansas City is 4-10-1 against the spread this season, and this week it is laying double digits at home.

Pick: Broncos +13.5

The Broncos have bottomed out, and now they face the Chiefs — who have won 14 straight in this AFC West rivalry and are hanging on to home-field advantage in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is 10-0 with a 95.4 passer rating against Denver, too. What about the spread? The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS when favored by more than 10 points.

Projected score: Chiefs 34, Broncos 17

The Broncos may have needed to make this move to light a fire under a 4-11 squad. Under new direction, they'll go on the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs, who are led by MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes.

Projected score: Chiefs 34, Broncos 17

I don't have many X's and O's reasons to believe this one will be close. But the Broncos defense is much better than it showed last week vs. the Rams, and maybe they get the classic, one-game interim coach bump?

Pick: Broncos +12.5

Related Content