CINCINNATI --The Bengals' equation for offensive success is simple: use the run to draw the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, and set up deep one-on-one opportunities for wide receiver A.J. Green.
The emergence of rookie Jeremy Hill strengthened that strategy. The second-round pick replaced the injured Giovani Bernard in the lineup for the Week 9 game at Jacksonville, and pounced on the opportunity, racking up 154 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries in that start, and seizing the job.
Bernard returned after missing three games, but Hill is the primary threat now, with more carries than Bernard in each of the last four games they've played together.
The two second-round picks provide a contrast as a one-two punch; Hill is 30 pounds heavier and four inches taller than the 5-foot-9, 208-pound Bernard. But Hill has surprising speed and moves in the open field that belie his size, a bit like Broncos rookie Juwan Thompson.
"Gio Bernard, I'm going to say he's a Ronnie Hillman-type back, a speed running back. So they bring in Hill, and he's their power back, so he's their change-of-pace back, and he's been running hard, man," said Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. "He's very impressive as a rookie, and we've got to slow him down. He's definitely the key to the game: him and Bernard.
"If we don't shut down the run, it's going to be a long day."
That's due in part to the fact that if the Broncos can't contain Hill and Bernard with their front seven -- which will include two linebackers who were not starters as recently as Week 9 -- they will have to sacrifice coverage on the back end, and that would create more opportunities for Green to be left on an island on the outside, without safety help.
"We've got good corners, we've got good design. And we'll do some things to make sure that we give [Green] plenty of attention," Broncos Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio said. "But it can't be all about stopping one guy. It's about stopping their offense. But he's a big part of it. He's a good player."
The clash between physical freaks Aqib Talib and A.J. Green should be fun to watch, while Terrance Knighton draws another rookie center.
We won't know until the game begins how the Broncos plan to match up with the Bengals' wide receivers, but Talib seems like a good fit to draw Green, who's been to the Pro Bowl in each of his first three seasons. This may be Sunday's marquee matchup, with two lanky, Gumby-like athletes that can move and attack the ball in the air with the best of them. Green was bothered by a toe injury in the middle of the season but has rounded back into form, putting up a 224-yard game two weeks ago against the Steelers. "He's just one of the top guys in the league," Talib said of Green. "Just that size, that speed and that play-making ability. The guy can flat out play football." Meanwhile, Talib is coming off perhaps his best game as a Bronco, shutting down Malcom Floyd and reading Philip Rivers' eyes to make a terrific fourth-quarter interception. If he can disrupt Green's routes at the line of scrimmage and use his downfield safety help to his advantage, Andy Dalton's most dangerous weapon could be marginalized.
Hill, who Head Coach John Fox called "outstanding," offers excellent size and power with surprising agility and good feet."He's physical, has good vision, he has good burst through the hole," Fox said. "I think he has good hands. They don't utilize him as much in that role but he's a big reason why they're fighting for their division championship and he's been a big part of that, especially down the stretch."With Nate Irving and Danny Trevathan on injured reserve and Brandon Marshall battling a foot injury, Johnson may start at middle linebacker on Sunday, while Davis could be called upon for meaningful snaps as well, like he was a week ago. Johnson is one of the few healthy veterans at the position, and brings plenty of thump filling gaps in the run game, while Jack Del Rio has praised Davis' preparation since joining the team a few weeks ago.If the pair can meet the standard the Broncos' linebackers have set this season in run defense and keep Hill's gains to a minimum, a key part of the Bengals' attack could be cut out, forcing Andy Dalton to throw more often.
For the second consecutive week, Knighton will line up opposite a rookie center. Against the Chargers, Knighton gave Chris Watt all he could handle and helped the Broncos stifle the run game, limiting San Diego to 56 yards on 20 carries (2.8 average). Bodine has been up and down this season, and currently grades out as Pro Football Focus' 34th best center this season. With the Bengals' recent emphasis on the ground, expect them to give Bodine plenty of help on Knighton with double teams as they try to get Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard going. But don't be surprised if the big defensive tackle ruins Cincy's plans with another disruptive game.
Atkins has had a quiet year, by his standards, coming off a torn ACL suffered midseason in 2013 against the Dolphins. A double-digit sack artist in 2012, Atkins has only three this season but is starting to work back into form. He's had 1.5 sacks in the last three weeks and a tackle for loss in each of the last four games. Ramirez will often draw Atkins in run and pass blocking, and may get help in pass protection to deal with Atkins' "dancing bear" agility. The better Ramirez does, the more room Manning will have to step up and throw downfield.
Thomas played his first snaps in almost a month last Sunday in San Diego, getting in on 29 plays against the Chargers and making a beautiful 30-yard catch down the sideline. One week further removed from his ankle injury, Thomas' role may increase against a depleted linebacking corps. Vontaze Burfict struggled with injuries throughout the year and is now on injured reserve, putting Rey in the starting lineup after he started just four games in his first four seasons. The Bengals were burned by tight ends from the Patriots (Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright), Panthers (Greg Olsen) and Colts (Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener) in Weeks 5-7, but have improved since. In Weeks 8-15, the Bengals' defense allowed just one TD to a tight end and limited every opponent to less than 50 receiving yards at the position. If Rey can help that trend continue against Thomas, Peyton Manning may have to look elsewhere through the air.
Cincinnati went 1-1-1 in the three games it played without Green in October. After two subpar games following his return from an right toe injury, Green has averaged 7.4 receptions and 115.6 yards per game.
"We're going to definitely have to keep him from having any explosive (plays)," Harris said. "He started out a little slow, but now he's starting to gain momentum and pick it up."
And wide receiver Mohamed Sanu and tight end Jermaine Gresham are capable of taking advantage if defenses pay too much attention to Green. But if the Broncos can neutralize the run, they can focus on the pass rush and coverage, and the defense can have the kind of success it has enjoyed in allowing just 14.3 points per game the last three weeks.
"The main thing is, if we shut down the run and make them one-dimensional, and make Andy Dalton force throws at us, we feel like we can win most of our matchups," said Chris Harris Jr.
But nothing short-circuits the Bengals like takeaways. In their nine wins, the Bengals average 1.1 turnovers a game. In their four losses and a tie against Carolina, that average doubles to 2.2.
CINCINNATI BY THE NUMBERS
TOTAL OFFENSE
- Yards per game: 348.4, 13th
- Yards per play: 5.51, 13th
- Giveaways: 21, T-18th
- First-down rate: One every 3.56 plays, 17th
- Third-down conversion rate: 40.86 percent, 16th
PASSING
- Yards per game: 218.14, 23rd
- Yards per pass play: 6.64, 14th
- Sack rate: One every 23.0 pass plays, 7th
- Touchdown rate: One every 28.75 pass plays, 25th
- Quarterback hit rate: One per 10.70 pass plays, 28th
- First-down rate: One per 3.19 pass plays, 22nd
- Drop rate (per STATS, Inc.):One per 12.63 opportunities, 27th
- Yards after catch per reception (per STATS, Inc.): 6.00, 7th
RUSHING
- Yards per game: 130.29, 6th
- Yards per rush: 4.28, 12th
- First-down rate: One every 4.06 carries, 6th
- Touchdown rate: One every 23.67 carries, 2nd
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