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Mason's Mock 3.0

Posted Apr 25, 2013

Andrew Mason takes gives his final prediction for how the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft will play out.

1. KANSAS CITY (2-14): OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Previous: Same.

Still a perfect match of need and team.

2. JACKSONVILLE (2-14): DE/LB Dion Jordan, Oregon
Previous: Same.

A superior athlete at a premium position. Jacksonville's defense lacks explosion and desperately needs the burst Jordan can provide it.

3. OAKLAND (4-12): DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Previous: QB Geno Smith.

The trade for Matt Flynn means the Raiders can afford to wait a year to find their long-term quarterback, when next year's draft offers a much deeper crop at the position. Floyd immediately upgrades a defensive line that is basically starting over.

4. PHILADELPHIA (4-12): DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Previous: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida.

Concerns about his heart condition have ebbed, and he can expect to start immediately and be the focal point of a defensive reboot.

5. DETROIT (4-12): OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Previous: Same.

If the Chiefs decide to take Fisher, Luke Joeckel could end up here. Either way, the Lions need to emerge from this draft with help protecting Matthew Stafford.

6. CLEVELAND (5-11): CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
Previous: Same.

It won't take long for a duo of Milliner and Joe Haden to become one of the league's premier cornerback duos. Add in a more explosive pass rush, and Cleveland's defense has a chance for a quick rebuild.

7. ARIZONA (5-11): DE/LB Ziggy Ansah, BYU
Previous: Same.

Arizona has many pressing needs -- including offensive line, and protecting Carson Palmer -- but Ansah's ceiling is higher than anyone else on the board here.

8. BUFFALO (6-10): G Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
Previous: WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

Buffalo wants a quarterback, but Doug Marrone can find his old college passer, Ryan Nassib, in the second round, which would be a better value pick. A better play is finding somebody to protect whoever ends up under center.

9: N.Y. JETS (6-10): DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Previous: NT Star Lotulelei.

Although a cornerback would help, the Jets' defensive needs are so varied that they can afford to take the pass rusher with the highest ceiling among those left on the board.

10. TENNESSEE (6-10): G Chance Warmack, Alabama
Previous: Same.

You know how John Elway says he likes his first-round picks to be "10-year starters"? Elway isn't running the Titans, but they'd like that too, and Warmack fits the bill.

11. SAN DIEGO (7-9): OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Previous: Same.

If Johnson falls to this point, it's a perfect match of skill set and a team's desperate need. 

12. MIAMI (7-9): CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Previous: Same.

Cornerback is a need for the new-look Dolphins, and Rhodes fits the bill.

13. N.Y. JETS (6-10): QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
Previous: DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, Florida State (when Tampa Bay held the pick).

At this point in the first round, the risk involved in selecting Smith becomes more prudent. 

14. CAROLINA (7-9): DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
Previous: Same.

A salary-cap crunch has prevented them from addressing the interior of their defensive front as needed in free agency the last two years. Having Richardson fall into their lap is perfect.

15. NEW ORLEANS (7-9): DE/OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Previous: DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU

I've had Jones going to Pittsburgh in previous mocks, but with Mingo off the board and the Saints going to a 3-4, this fits a need.

16. ST. LOUIS (7-8-1): WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Previous: G Jonathan Cooper.

St. Louis needs help at offensive line and wide receiver, but with Cooper moving up and off the board, Austin is now the pick.

17. PITTSBURGH (8-8): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Previous: DE/OLB Jarvis Jones.

The Steelers have no reservations about taking a tight end high in the draft, and with Heath Miller coming off a bad knee injury, this fills a need.

18. DALLAS (8-8): S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
Previous: Same.

Vaccaro can step right in and offer an upgrade -- assuming he drops this far.

19. N.Y. GIANTS (9-7): OT D.J. Fluker, Alabama
Previous: Same.

Björn Werner or Tank Carradine are possibilities here as the Giants look to replace Osi Umenyiora, but protecting Eli Manning has to remain their top priority.

20. CHICAGO (10-6): CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
Previous: WR Tavon Austin.

If Austin drops this far, expect the Bears to pounce, but with him off the board in this mock, Chicago addresses another key need in a division flooded with elite receivers.

21. CINCINNATI (10-6): LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Previous: Same.

The Bengals have never been shy about gambling on talented prospects with character concerns. Talent isn't the issue with Ogletree.

Previous: WR Keenan Allen.

The offensive linemen available at this point don't offer great value, and the Rams' needs are so myriad that they can take Reid and target a weak spot.

23. MINNESOTA (10-6): DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Previous: Same.

Tank Carradine is a possibility here after his strong workout last Saturday, but the Vikings have long relied on an inside-out philosophy up front.

24. INDIANAPOLIS (11-5): DE/LB Tank Carradine, Florida State
Previous: Same.

It's not a natural fit for the 3-4, but Carradine has the speed to be able to stand up and attack if a team asks him to.

25. MINNESOTA (FROM SEATTLE): WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
Previous: WR DeAndre Hopkins.

Just because the Vikings signed Greg Jennings doesn't mean they don't need a wide receiver, and with Patterson on the board, this is an obvious choice.

26. GREEN BAY (11-5): DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Previous: Same.

No defensive lineman on the Packers had more than four sacks last year, so Jones fits the need for more punch up front.

27. HOUSTON (12-4): WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Previous: TE Tyler Eifert.

Andre Johnson remains elite, but he'll hit his 11th season this year and the Texans desperately need to groom another target opposite him.

28. DENVER (13-3): DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Previous: DE/OLB Damontre Moore.

Although Werner's stock appears to have slid on mock drafts in recent weeks, there's still a lot to like about him. He's large enough to play every down, is an effective run defender and is still raw enough to possess growth potential.

29. NEW ENGLAND (12-4): DE Margus Hunt, SMU
Previous: Same.

Bill Belichick will gamble on athleticism, even if it is as unpolished as it is with Hunt.

30. ATLANTA (13-3): CB D.J. Hayden, Houston
Previous: CB Desmond Trufant

A terrific pro day workout signaled that Hayden has fully recovered from a near-death injury (a torn vein in his heart) suffered last November. Hayden is only 5-foot-11, but makes up for it with his athleticism.

31. SAN FRANCISCO (11-4-1): S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Previous: Same.

With DaShon Goldson now in Tampa Bay, safety is a need. San Francisco could also look to the defensive line.

32. BALTIMORE (10-6): LB Kevin Minter, LSU.
Previous: LB Manti Te'o.

A nice fit of player and need. Minter should start immediately for a Ravens defense in the midst of a retooling.